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IWSR: Global alcohol consumption to continue decline, reviving next decade

It anticipates that over this 10-year timeframe – following a fall and resurgence – total volume consumption will be only 1% lower in 2035 compared to 2025.

According to IWSR, this stabilisation trajectory is set to be driven by two key factors: a rebalancing of the global market, and growth in the global drinking age population.

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Zooming in category by category, a concerning picture emerges for wine consumption. Between 2025 and 2035, wine volume sales are predicted to drop by 14% while spirits will see a less precipitous fall of 2%.

Beer volume is expected to take less of a hit, declining 1%, while RTDs are projected to continue their positive trajectory, uplifting by 17%.

By 2035, major markets are predicted to decline with emerging markets seeing substantial growth. In terms of the former, IWSR predicts the number of beverage alcohol servings to see the following drops:

• China: -19%
• United States: -18%
• Japan: -15%
• Germany: -14%
• United Kingdom: -13%

Despite these declines, over the same 2025 to 2035 period, IWSR anticipates a rebalancing will take place with the following markets set to see a significant rise (in terms of the number of beverage alcohol servings):

• India: +38%
• Colombia: +26%
• Vietnam: +15%
• Mexico: +13%

Using this servings metric, India is set to overtake the US by 2032 to become the globe’s second largest beverage alcohol market.

IWSR expects overall annual per capita litres of pure alcohol consumption to drop by half a litre by 2035, offset by a 9% growth in the drinking age population.

Reflecting on the 10 year predictions, Marten Lodewijks president and MD at IWSR said: “The forecast stabilization in global beverage alcohol volumes is good news for the industry, but there are still plenty of challenges ahead.

“2035 will be a vastly different market landscape than the one we see today, and producers will need to cater to changing consumer tastes in established markets as well as prepare for significant changes in where consumption is taking place.” 

This year’s data confirmed

The insights business also released confirmed data for 2025. From the period 2024 to 2025, global beverage alcohol volume fell by 2%. By category, volume sales were as follows:

• Wine: -5%
• Spirits: -3%
• Beer: -2%
• RTDs: +3%

Of the 160 markets analysed by IWSR, 66 saw the number of beverage alcohol servings consumed increase, 83 markets experienced declines, while 12 saw sales remain flat year on year.

The biggest markets seeing growth this year were India which saw a 4% rise in servings sold; Colombia which saw a similar increase of 4%; and South Africa where they uplifted 1%.

By category notable performances were seen for RTD cocktails (14%); no-alcohol beer (8%); Stout (4%); and Indian whiskey (4%).

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• Spirits
• data
• IWSR
• global market
• RTDs
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• alcohol consumpton