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Wine set to help global alcohol consumption to reach £830bn by 2022

Published:  08 August, 2018

A relatively sunny outlook is being forecast for the global alcohol industry over the next five years, with the wine set to see the largest portion of growth.

According to new data from the IWSR, global value growth is forecasted for all major alcoholic categories over the next five years.

However, in many instances, a slowdown in growth is expected compared to the previous five-year period.

This is the case for wine, which is set to grow by 37.8m nine-litre cases to 3.58bn in 2022, up from 3.54bn in 2017.

This puts growth at +0.2% for 2018-2022 compared to +0.3% between 2012 and 2017.

Value is set to be worth £176.3bn in 2022, up from £165.3 in 2017 (+6.2%).

Spirits is expected to grow by 36.5m cases, with the UK remaining the leading growth market for gin.

Global alcohol consumption is forecast to grow by 147.1m nine-litre cases over the next five years, totalling a whopping 28bn cases.

Value growth of £60.97bn means alcohol worldwide could be worth £830bn in 2022.

The data, from the recently released IWSR 2018-2022 Forecast: Volume and Value Data, looks at the movements of the worldwide alcoholic beverage sector from this year to 2022, with the last full year of data taken from 2017.

Within the wine category, still and sparkling wine will lead the growth, while fortified, light aperitifs and other wines are all expected to decline.

The US, Russia and Brazil are predicted to be the largest-growing markets for still and sparkling wine between 2017 and 2022.

The ailing global beer market is expected to return to growth in 2018 following a poor 2017 in many markets.

Struggles in China, the US and Russia, where domestic beers are all in decline, are behind much of the drop in beer volumes.

Volumes are expected to dip again in 2019 after some recovery this year and continue to 2022.

However, value is to set to grow year on year.

While total spirits is set to grow, the outlook for the different categories is mixed.

The strongest global growth is predicted for whisky, followed by gin and genever – a traditional juniper-flavoured liquor originating in the Netherlands and Belgium – and agave-based spirits.

Vodka is forecast to see the largest drop mainly due to continuing declines in Russia. Rum and brandy are also forecast to decline due to drops in low-priced brandy and value rum.

However, when looking at the premium-and-above segment, all spirits categories are expected to grow.

The leading growth market for gin will still be the UK, and France is expected to be the lead growth market for rum.

The US will continue to be a key market with top growth for wine and spirits, including US whiskey, Irish whiskey, Canadian whisky, tequila, mezcal, Cognac/Armagnac and vodka.