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Global wine sales set to drop -2.4% in 2025

This overall figure was previously forecast in May to shrink -0.2% though IWSR has now worsened its outlook for the year. Similarly, it predicts a year-on-year decline in terms of global beverage alcohol value sales of -0.7% (down from IWSR’s May prediction of -0.5%).

According to the drinks analytics provider, the primary explanation for this lowered projection is a drop in beer volume sales. Beer volume is now predicted to be in decline (-2%) for 2025, when it was anticipated in May that this figure would be on the rise (+0.2%). IWSR touts “economic and political pressures in the US and China” as a key driver for its changing beer prediction.

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Global spirits volumes sales is projected to decline -1.3% for 2025, though RTDs are forecast to see an uplift of +1.3% year on year.

IWSR’s current forecast for 2026 remains the same as its May prediction – both volume and value sales are predicted to sit at 0% growth.

MD and president of IWSR, Marten Lodewijks, elaborates on the shifting picture of global beer consumption: “Beer consumption is particularly tied to going out to bars and restaurants, but consumers in the US are choosing to stay at home more than expected because of cost-of-living pressures.

“When consumers buy alcohol to entertain at home, they make different purchasing decisions, and beer often loses out.

“Another pressure on beer volume in the US has been a marked decline in Mexican beer, which has been a key driver of US beer consumption for many years. Political and economic uncertainty among Hispanic consumers has brought down Mexican beer volumes, further dampening overall beer consumption.”

There is also an evolving story playing out across the Pacific: “In China, consumption has been hit by a government crackdown on luxury goods and a ban on alcohol at public sector events. Weaker than expected economic growth is also reducing spending at bars and restaurants as well as beverage alcohol spend generally.”

The forecast released by the IWSR is its first mid-year update. It will now update its forecasts in both May and November each year.

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