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Sparkling wine, Chile and premium spirits forecast to continue to buck UK downward consumption trend

Published:  15 February, 2018

The growth in sparkling wine, along with premium gin, rum and whisky, is set to continue beyond 2021, helping offset the impart on value sales of a 10-year decline in consumption.

These forecasts, drawn from the latest Vinexpo/IWSR International Wine and Spirit Trends report, also suggest that Chile will overtake France in terms of volume supplied to the UK by 2021, edging its way up from sixth largest supplier to second as all the top five volume players continue to decline.

At a presentation in London ahead of Vinexpo Hong Kong, CEO Guillaume Deglise highlighted the that sparkling wine sales in the UK have risen by 8.7 million 9Lcases in 2011 to 14.1 million 9L cases in 2016, predicting a further rise to 16.15 million 9L cases by 2021, representing +84.4% growth over that decade.

The Prosecco boom is set to continue, with the forecast predicting that (all) Italian sparkling will grow by +5.4% between 2016 and 2021, with France, Spain and Australia declining (by -1.4%, -1.9% and -9.3% respectively), with both Cava and Champagne predicted to continue to lose ground, going against the current signs in the UK that non-Prosecco sparkling wines are in growth.

Chile also presents a positive category for the trade, with growth to 2021 predicted to be +2.4%, set against an ongoing volume decline of the top five (Australia, -1.8%; USA, -3.4%; France, -4.3%; Italy, -5.8%; and Spain, -4.8%), elevating it ahead of France and USA by 2021 to second position.

New Zealand, at +8%, and Argentina, at +9.4%, are also forecast to grow fast, albeit from smaller bases.

Meanwhile, the ‘Gin-naissance’ shows no sign of slowing, with volume sales predicted to rise by +10.5% by 2016, with Rum and premium/malt whisky also continuing to rise.

All of this is set against continued UK and global trends towards more premium wines and spirits sales, with a slight upturn in global wine consumption in 2017 (after a five year slight dip) predicted to continue, leading to a new world high in terms of value, at $224 Billion by 2021.

China, followed by the USA, will remain the strongest drivers of this growth.

With regard to the UK market, Vinexpo’s Deglise said: “The increased volume of sparkling wine and a trend to premium still wines will offset the overall decrease in wine value.”