The first Labour-backed Budget of the new government is expected to have a significant impact on the balance sheet of popular pub group J D Wetherspoon, just as the company was on track to return to steady growth.
The highstreet chain has posted a solid sales record over the past few years as it strived to recover from Covid and the impact of widespread hospitality closures.
Sales hit a low of £772.6m for the first six months of 2021, before bouncing back to an impressive £2035.5m for the same period in 2024. Meanwhile, sales for H12025 are expected to reach £2101.7m.
However, forecasts via investment bank Peel Hunt show that the Autumn Budget should cost the company £60m per annum from April 2025. The Budget has wiped 7% off the expected profits before tax for 2025 and 9% off 2026.
Cash flow also looks to be impacted. It is due to fall from a four-year peak in H12024 (£137.4m) to £123.3m in the first half of 2025.
The figures underscore the maelstrom of cost pressures facing hospitality, with the £60m almost entirely to be consumed by rising labour-related costs such as increases to the minimum wage and National Insurance.
Given the various pressures, the profits at the highstreet favourite remain relatively resilient – though it remains to be seen how consumers will stomach inevitable price rises at the budget-friendly buisness.
Profits before tax for the first half of this year are forecasted to rise by 10% to £39.6m, driven by 5.1% LFL sales. However, the majority of this growth has come from high-margin gaming machines (+11.7%), compared with food and drink (both +4.5%).
Wetherspoon paid £961,000 per pub in total taxation last year – and this is expected to exceed £1m per pub from next month onwards.