South Africa confident going into 2026 harvest season
South Africa Wine, the national body for the country's wine sector, has announced that the South African wine industry enters the 2026 harvest season with increased confidence, as the first official crop estimate (from private and producer-cellar growers) indicates another stable year.
While isolated late frost damage was recorded in a few areas, most producers have been spared major weather disruptions – meaning that vineyards will be able to maintain the positive trajectory established in 2025.
These stable weather patterns enable vines to maintain their “phenological rhythm”, according to Dr Etienne Terblanche, consultation services manager for Vinpro NPC, a technically-focused producer-organisation.
Commenting on the favourable forecast, he said: “The vineyards benefited from moderate temperatures during the crucial bunch initiation period in 2025, followed by minimal disease pressure, and healthy and active canopy conditions after harvest.
“Winter rainfall was close to long-term averages, and chill accumulation improved significantly, especially in regions where cold units are often limiting. Together, these conditions created a solid foundation for the uniform budding and good fertility we are seeing this season.”
Warmer and drier spring conditions brought budding forward by approximately 10 days compared to 2025. Additionally, budding was reported to be exceptionally uniform across most regions – aided by higher soil temperatures, and sufficient chill during the winter.
Growth conditions were largely favourable across the season, with warm dry weather allowing healthy vegetative growth, and supporting flowering, fertilisation and set across many cultivars.
Improved bunch numbers are expected in cultivars such as Chenin Blanc, while some late-ripening red varieties (eg Cabernet Sauvignon and Ruby Cabernet) are predicted to experience looser set.
Despite the ongoing ageing and reduction of the national vineyard surface area (now at 86,544ha), a slightly larger harvest than last year is forecasted.
According to South Africa Wine, this reflects a long-term structural shift, wherein unproductive vineyards are removed, and better performing, fit-for-purpose plantings take their place.
The major constraint to this year’s harvest appears to be water availability. Dryland areas like the Swartland and Cape Town have experienced minimal summer rainfall, while producers drawing soley from mountain runoff have also seen lower irrigation stocks than last year.
However, many irrigation schemes remain well-supplied and operate according to plan.
Terblanche added that “the fertility is clearly visible in the vineyards, but the extent of the final crop size will depend heavily on water resource availability.
“Conditions vary significantly between regions, so producers will need to use all available tools to monitor water status and manage ripening closely. If the current trend holds, we can expect a harvest similar to or slightly larger than the previous season”.
The CEO of South Africa Wine, Rico Basson, emphasised the importance of consistency across South Africa’s 10 wine regions, noting that “with the national wine stock-to-sales ratio in equilibrium, the sector is better positioned to respond to market opportunities.
“Continued focused reinvestment in both vineyards and wineries is crucial for securing future supply and sustaining the positive momentum gained through consecutive stable seasons”.
Pictured – Vineyard in Stellenbosch, South Africa
Picture credit – Albrecht Fietz on Pixabay
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