Fine wine market outlook 'cautiously positive'

By James Lawrence

Published: 13 December, 2024

Investment firm Wine Cap has released its end of year report, with the outlook for 2025 relatively optimistic despite a bumpy year fraught with value declines.

Beginning with an overview of Q4, Wine Cap admitted that the fine wine market in 2024 had “continued its downward trajectory from 2023, with broad declines across major indices”.

Notably, the Liv-ex 100 has fallen 9.2% year-to-date, while the Liv-ex 50, which tracks First Growth Bordeaux, is down 10.9%.

Read more: EU wine exports to Chinese mainland in major decline says new report

According to Wine Cap: “The fine wine market saw mixed performances as the year drew to a close. Bordeaux, the largest and most liquid fine wine region, saw an 11.3% decline. Liquidity remains Bordeaux’s strength, but it no longer guarantees safety in today’s market. Recent vintages in particular have struggled, with many trading below their release prices.

“California wines fell 8.6% but showed positive momentum in November. Spanish wine also benefitted from surging US demand, with Vega Sicilia Unico (pictured) taking the top spot as the most powerful fine wine brand in 2024. Two other Spanish wines also made the rankings – Dominio de Pingus and R. Lopez de Heredia – a testament to Spain’s growing investment potential.”

Meanwhile, the Rhône dominated this year’s top-performing wines, claiming four of the ten spots on the list.

The report also delved into the American election, revealing that “US equities reacted positively to the outcome, as investors anticipated business-friendly policies and potential fiscal stimulus, particularly benefiting sectors like manufacturing and technology.”

However, it added that “concerns over increased tariffs created uncertainties for multinational corporations”.

Nevertheless, Wine Cap stated that the outlook for 2025 was “cautiously positive”, driven by enthusiasm for premium regions such as Piedmont, Champagne, and Burgundy.

The 2024 Golden Vines Report adds further weight to this claim, as 64% of industry professionals said they anticipated market growth, particularly for high-end Italian wines like Barolo and Barbaresco – the new Burgundy perhaps.

Yet Bordeaux may continue to struggle unless the region embarks upon a major paradigm shift, according to Wine Cap's analysts.

“For another year, Bordeaux En Primeur struggled to attract significant interest with the release of the 2023 vintage, especially for wines where older proven vintages offered better values.”

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