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UK pub and bar sector to see modest growth in 2024

Easing inflation and major sporting events are expected to provide a welcome boost. However, the number of outlets is projected to decline by 0.9%, driven by the strategic closure of underperforming sites and rising operational costs.

“The top 10 operators are forecast to achieve 4.2% growth in 2024, led by market leader The Lounges,” the report states, highlighting the ongoing success of experiential concepts in driving turnover. These venues, offering more than just food and drink, continue to appeal to consumers seeking unique social experiences.

• Read more: Hospitality businesses warn of sharp rise in bills if rates relief ends
  

While the overall outlook is positive, challenges remain. The combination of higher business costs and continued economic uncertainty is likely to pressure smaller operators. However, large operators and innovative concepts appear well-positioned to weather these difficulties, particularly those able to adapt to evolving consumer preferences.

The restaurant sector is also expected to see growth in 2024, with a projected increase of 1.4%. However, this remains below the eating out market’s overall forecast of 2.8%. Restaurants are navigating a landscape marked by cautious consumer spending and strategic restructuring. Despite this, premium brands such as Dishoom, The Ivy, and Miller & Carter continue to thrive, benefiting from a focus on quality.

Meanwhile, data from the CGA RSM Hospitality Business Tracker indicates that Britain’s leading hospitality groups achieved modest year-on-year sales growth of 1.3% in August 2024. 

Managed pubs outperformed the sector with a 2.9% growth despite poor weather, while bars saw a 9% decline, continuing a trend of negative growth. Karl Chessell, director at CGA by NIQ, noted that “real-terms growth has been elusive,” but pubs have remained resilient, even in challenging conditions.

• lumina intelligence
• Karl Chessell
• NIQ
• The Ivy
• CGA RSM Hospitality Business Tracker