Sterling undermined by weak economic data

Published: 31 July, 2012

Sterling had a poor day yesterday undermined by the release of a string of weak economic data.

Currency Rates - July 31

EURO/GBP - 1.2801
US$/GBP - 1.5708
CHF/GBP - 1.5382
CAN$/GBP - 1.5729
AUS$/GBP - 1.4942
ZAR/GBP - 12.8352
JPY/GBP - 122.90
HKD/GBP - 12.1815
NZD/GBP - 1.9390
SEK/GBP - 10.6974
AED/GBP - 5.7681
US$/EURO - 1.2259
INR/GBP - 87.62

It included worse than expected CBI realised sales, fewer than anticipated new mortgage approvals and the change in the value of lending to individuals being lower than the market predicted. With very little data out from the UK today, the markets will look elsewhere for influence.

The euro struggled yesterday following its strong end to last week as economic confidence figures dropped by more than expected in July. Investors are also starting to become nervous that the ECB President may not be able to deliver on his comments last week which alluded to the ECB restarting the bond buying program to drive down sovereign debt yields. Despite this caution, Italy's benchmark 10 year bond auction yesterday saw its yields fall to 5.96%; but, did not drop by as much as many expected following the ECB Presidents comments last week. Spanish flash GDP was poor and confirmed the country remains in recession; but, the reading did come in at the expected level of -0.4% (it is slightly alarming that Spanish GDP figures are better than the -0.7% in the UK!). German retail sales, Eurozone unemployment data and inflation estimates are all on the agenda today; but, the focus will remain on the ECB press conference on Thursday.

The US dollar had a mixed day yesterday due to the lack of significant data released in the US and with the markets tentative about what the rest of the week may bring. The Federal Open Market Committee meetings start today; but, the statement on Wednesday is expected to be much more influential. US consumer confidence figures will be released and should at least give some indication of the state of the US economy.

Elsewhere, the best performer yesterday was the Swedish krona which was particularly strong due to the much better than expected GDP data released. Overnight, business confidence figures from New Zealand and building approvals data from Australia was released.

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