UK wine consumption has fallen 10.5% per capita since the recession hit in 2008, but Vinexpo says the worst is over and wind drinking will start to edge up over the next five years.
UK wine consumption has fallen 10.5% per capita since the recession hit in 2008, but Vinexpo says the worst is over and wind drinking will start to edge up over the next five years.
Vinexpo, the French wine and spirits exhibition, has compiled a report using IWSR data, which forecasts a slow recovery until 2020. But it warns that wine drinking will not recover to 2008 levels of 25 litres per person, or 1.61 billion bottles of white, rosé and red wine in the "foreseeable future".
By 2018 per capita consumption should hit 22.5 litres per head, or 128.71 million 9-litre cases. The report points out that in 2014, UK wine consumption hit a six-year low falling to 122.2 million cases compared with the high point of 2008.
Despite falling consumption, total retail value of UK wine sales has grown in the last seven years as sales of premium wines has grown. The value of total UK wine sales rose from US$14 billion (GBP£9.3 billion) in 2008 to reach US$16.1 billion (£10.7 billion) last year. It is forecast to reach US$16.47 billion (£10.9 billion) this year.
Sparkling wine has been the number one success story since 2008, and its popularity with UK drinkers shows no signs of slowing. From 2008 to 2018 UK drinkers are predicted to increase their consumption from 1.6 litres per person to 2.2 litres per year.
The volume of sparkling wine drunk in the UK rose from 8.68 million cases in 2008 to 11.23 million by last year and is forecast to reach 11.56 million cases this year. Prosecco is driving growth - in 2013 UK imports jumped 43%, and in the five years from 2008 to 2013 imports doubled from 1.38 million 9-litre cases to 3.57 million cases.
Spain and the much-smaller US sparkling wines also showed growth in the UK market last year, while Champagne and Australian sparklers declined.
White wine is the most popular by colour in the UK, and is expected to grow from a low of 62.6 million bottles to 676.7 million in 2015, and 698.7 million in 2018. Red will also recover from a low of 636.2 million bottles in 2014 to 645.2 million this year. Rosé consumption is forecast to hit 174 million bottles in 2015, and hit 183 million by 2018.
Guillaume Deglise
Vinexpo chief executive Guillaume Deglise, said: "We can say confidently that 2015 will show that the UK wine recession is over. While the UK market shed 9.6 million cases between 2008 and 2013, it is now past its low point. The UK wine trade is building value and many leading marketers report progress at the premium end."
Vinexpo will take place in Bordeaux from June 14 to 18, 2015.