Liv-ex research demonstrates predictive power of bid-to-offer ratio

By Hamish Graham

Published: 05 February, 2026

Fresh research from fine wine trading platform Liv-ex highlights the predictive power of using the bid-to-offer (BO) ratio to anticipate future fine wine market performance.

The analysis, spearheaded by data analyst at Liv-ex Alex Chisholm, shows that the present BO of a given basket of wines, can predict future price movements with high statistical significance.

Although results in his research vary by subset, in terms of the broadest measure – in Liv-ex’s case its Fine Wine 1000 index – it provides the most widely applicable results. Chisholm detailed that the research’s model has the strongest association regarding the relationship between the BO ratio of the Liv-ex 1000 index and its 3-month returns.

The analysis’ model explains approximately 59% of variation in the Liv-ex 1000 index’s returns, with 41% therefore attributable to other factors.

Why the BO ratio can explain the health of the fine wine market is understood as follows: when the value of bids (a proxy for demand) increases relative to the value of offers (a proxy for supply), price increases can often follow. If buyers are placing better bids, confidence appears to be building. By contrast, if offers dominate there is likely caution within the market.

Individual wines can diverge significantly within a given subset, though Chisholm explained that average market returns tend to cluster around these outlooks.

Chisholm reflected on his findings further.

“The bid‑to‑offer ratio provides a statistically robust early signal of fine wine market movements, with the ratio explaining a substantial share of price variability in two-to-five months”, he said. “For fine wine market participants looking to inform pricing, inventory, and investment decisions, the bid-to-offer ratio is a crucial metric for assessing market sentiment and forecasting future price movements.”

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