A new report by Market & Business Development (MBD) projects that the pub industry turnover will grow by just 2% this year, due to the growing sale of cheap alcohol on the off-trade.
MBD estimates turnover will grow to 16.68billion, mainly because of supermarkets selling below cost alcohol.
The study also blamed supermarket special offers in particular on lager multi-packs for taking sales away from pubs during the World Cup in 2006.
Although the smoking ban is not expected to adversely affect overall pub sales, the research suggests that it is likely to lead to the closure of smaller premises.
The number of pubs is set to decline by 3% to 56,642 by 2012, with the wet-led sector of the market most likely to suffer as it struggles to diversify following the ban.
The research forecasts that the total turnover of UK pubs will reach 18.21bn in 2012, with moderate growth of between 1% and 3% in real terms during the next five years.