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Sterling loses ground against euro

Sterling had a mixed week, strengthening against the euro in the run up the EU Economic summit but quickly losing ground on news that Eurozone's bailout fund would support struggling banks without adding to government debt.

Currency rates - June 29

This week - (Last week)
EURO/GBP 1.2410 - (EURO/GBP 1.2436)
US$/GBP 1.5628 - (US$/GBP 1.5596)
CHF/GBP 1.4916 - (CHF/GBP 1.4941)
CAN$/GBP 1.6022 - (CAN$/GBP 1.6041)
AUS$/GBP 1.5394 - (AUS$/GBP 1.5554)
ZAR/GBP 12.9788 - (ZAR/GBP 13.0567)
JPY/GBP 124.36 - (JPY/GBP 125.34)
HKD/GBP 12.1321 - (HKD/GBP 12.103)
NZD/GBP 1.9597 - (NZD/GBP 1.9828)
SEK/GBP 10.896 - (SEK/GBP 10.9446)
AED/GBP 5.7431 - (AED/GBP 5.7259)
US$/EURO 1.2595 - (US$/EURO 1.2531)
INR/GBP 88.06 - (INR/GBP 89.141)

Against the US dollar the reverse trend was seen as risk aversion became the main driver in the market in the first half of the week with a rapid reversal overnight. The UK's final GDP reading yesterday showed that the economy had contracted by much more than expected in the fourth quarter of 2011 outlining that the UK is in a deeper recession than originally anticipated. The Bank of England's inflation report hearing outlined that all members of the Monetary Policy Committee shared the same sentiment that monetary policy should be kept loose causing increased speculation that we could see further monetary easing in July. The Governor of the Bank of England is speaking today whilst the central banks Financial Stability report is also released which should provide further insight into the state of the economy and possible further indication to the central banks plans for monetary policy going forwards.

The euro had a very poor week until Friday morning and the announcement of Eurozone bailout funds support for the banks, struggling against the majority of currencies. Fears surrounding Spain were intensified due to the Spanish prime minister also hinting that a full government bailout may be required if borrowing costs continue to remain high. Italy's bond yields also continued to rise this week causing the euro to weaken further as Italy's total debt in more than twice Spain's. Rumours also started to circulate this week that the European Central Bank may pause on its asset purchase facility and may cut the central bank rate instead next month. Cyprus also announced that it will seek a bailout to aid its failing economy. German employment data released yesterday also disappointed. It was also announced at the EU economic summit that a Eurozone supervisory body for banks would be formed. The EU economic summit continues today which could cause a lot of volatility if any further substantial news is released.

The US dollar performed well in the first half of this week as investors sought safer havens for their money as risk aversion dominated the market and revised GDP data confirmed steady growth of 1.9%. Other data released showed that US consumer confidence had missed expectations; but, durable goods orders figures showed a vast improvement on last month's figures where orders actually contracted. Other positive data included figures showing that the number of homes pending sale increased by more than anticipated. Revised consumer sentiment figures and inflation data is released today; but, expect any further news from Europe to have a much greater influence on the markets.

Elsewhere, the Japanese yen was one of the stand out performers this weak due to its safe haven status as well as the news that the lower house of Japanese parliament passed a bill to double the consumption tax which has been outlined as a way to tackle part of the economic deficit. The other main piece of news came from China as rumours started to circulate that pro-growth policies could be implemented to help the world's second largest economy. Canadian monthly GDP data is the main release on the agenda today.

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