Golden Vines Report offers a bullish forecast for 2025
The Golden Vines 2024 Report, formerly known as The Gérard Basset Global Fine Wine Report, has been published by the charity set up by friends and colleagues of the late sommelier.
Described as an “industry-leading annual report identifying key micro and macro trends that are likely to shape the global fine wine market”, it contains a wealth of insights on key consumer trends and important innovations.
Drawing on the considerable expertise of trade professionals, the survey reached out to 1,200 individuals from over 100 countries, with the results independently verified by Deloitte LLP.
According to its publishers: “68 Masters of Wine, 29 Master Sommeliers, 160 Advanced Sommeliers, 48 ASI Diploma and 301 DipWSET qualification holders took part in the survey.”
In addition, 397 sommeliers working at fine dining and Michelin-star establishments, 267 fine wine merchants and distributors, 121 collectors, 91 estate representatives (principally vignerons), and 36 auction house professionals shared their experience and expertise.
Participants views on the health and buoyancy of the luxury market was one key takeaway: as reported in Harpers, the Liv-ex 100 index has been in freefall since March 2023, declining 14.6%, whilst the broader Liv-ex 1000 index had fell by 15.3%.
Yet 64% of weighted responses in the Golden Vines report suggested a bullish forecast for the global fine wine market in 2025 with over a half of all weighted responses suggesting either a ‘Positive’ or ‘Very Positive’ performance for the global fine wine industry next year.
Similarly for the rare spirit segment, an optimistic sentiment was expressed by a majority of respondents, with 65% of weighted responses suggesting a positive forecast for the global rare spirit market in 2025 with over a half of all weighted responses suggesting either a ‘Positive’ or ‘Very Positive’ performance outlook.
Nevertheless, 19% of weighted responses indicated a neutral ‘Neither Positive Nor Negative’ outlook, with the remaining 16% of weighted responses suggesting either ‘Negative’ or ‘Very Negative’ forecasts for the rare spirit segment of the market.
Meanwhile, important trends identified by the respondents included rising demand for fine wines around the world (20%) as a result of continued re-stockings by restaurants and bars; growth in consumption and spending underpinned by amassed savings by those with higher disposable income; general trend of greater spend per bottle of fine wine and more drinking fine wine overall, and the greater knowledge and experience of fine wine drinkers (20%), as a result of increased interest in fine wines globally.
It also outlined a shift towards indigenous grape varietals which are “lighter, fresher, contain less alcohol, calories, new oak, and tannin and can be characterised as more fruity, acidic and elegant”.
The demand for organic, natural, biodynamic, and orange wines is also forecast to increase, “produced using transparent, sustainable, and environmentally-friendly and low carbon-footprint ethical farming practices, such as alternative packaging”.
According to the report: “Such wines – especially if marketed with a remarkable story – are especially popular among younger, millennial drinkers who continue to enter the fine wine segment at an unprecedented rate as highlighted in this report for the past three years.”
In terms of spirits, the survey found that a younger demographic were increasingly “interested in rare spirits from a new generation of producers across various regions producing first-class artisanal products underpinned by local cultural particularities of production”.
But, in tandem with the wine market, it also recorded “an ever-rising popularity of alternative beverages, such as low-alcohol and no alcohol beverages (10%), as well as a cocktails and mocktails, especially as a part of on-site gastronomic experiences”.
Participants also shared their insights on the shifting popularity of long-established names in the world of fine wine. Here, 20% of responses predicted the Piedmont region will experience “the most significant upside compared to any other winemaking region globally, principally due to the enormous interest in Italian fine wines”.
For the second year in a row however, Bordeaux continued to be perceived as significantly out-of-favour, with 27% of responses referencing the region as “the one with the most downside risk compared to any other global fine wine-producing region”.
Moreover, 19% of responses indicated that Burgundy is on a downward trajectory – followed by California (15%), just as last year, and Australian winemaking regions (15%).
The report can be accessed here.
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