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IWSR to launch coronavirus risk assessment tool

Published:  03 March, 2020

In light of coronavirus (Covid-19) continuing to cause chaos in the world of wine, drinks market analyst IWSR is gearing up to launch a risk assessment tool that will examine the impact of the novel virus on the alcohol market on a quarterly basis.

Available from next month, the Coronavirus Risk Assessment Model (CRAM) has been designed to provide the industry with data-driven insights to navigate the situation and mitigate risks as the threat of the coronavirus continues to unfold.

IWSR said it would “leverage its footprint of global analysts and their extensive network of over 1,600 local on-the-ground industry contacts”, to quantify and forecast the impact of the coronavirus on beverage alcohol consumption by key categories, markets, price segments and channels.

In the rapidly evolving sitiation, CRAM would give industry leaders the clarity needed to confidently respond to a serious event with global implications, said Mark Meek, CEO, IWSR.

IWSR’s local market knowledge would be bolstered by its access to critical industry insights, historical trends and data from the impact of previous global crises, and consensus forecasts from financial institutions, he added.  

“Early reports indicate that the revenue and profit impact to the industry will be in the billions of dollars. Initial signs are that Global Travel Retail and on-premise sales in China have suffered a severe downturn, and that other affected regions, such as Northern Italy and South Korea, are starting to see a similar impact.

“The ecommerce channel is already seeing increased activity as public transport and normal day-to-day activities, such as school and office attendance, are curtailed in several markets.”

While it’s still unclear as to when the extent of the disruption caused by the virus will be known, in terms of events and trade fairs it has already resulted in several postponements.

Over the weekend (29 February), Prowein organiser Messe Düsseldorf announced its flagship 2020 show had been postponed, as reported by Harpers. This followed the rescheduling of ProWine Asia from March to July due to the virus.  

Coming thick and fast, concerns over coronavirus has also prompted trade fair Vinexpo Hong Kong to move its show from May July following feedback from its exhibitors, while closer to home the management board of Les Grands Jours de Bourgogne wine promotion event has suspended its forthcoming edition while The Raw Wine Fair has also been postponed.

London Wine Fair however is still scheduled to take place.