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UK wine market expected to grow in value by 6% by 2018

Published:  10 July, 2014

The UK wine market is expected to grow in value by 6.1% to £13.14 billion by 2018, with volume growth forecast to pick up again in 2017.

According to a market update on wine from Key Note, wine's value growth will dip this year, given duty is rising by 2.5% as opposed to the expected 4.5%. However, the report predicts healthier value growth will return in the medium term, at 1.4% in 2016, 2% in 2017 and 2.2% in 2018.

UK wine market volume and value growthThe UK wine market is to grow in value by 6.1% by 2018According to a report by Key Note, wine sales, although on a downward curve right now, are expected to pick up in 2017.

Key Note says increased disposable incomes, the continued appetite for sparkling wine and an improvement in on-trade fortunes will drive growth. As for volumes, the market is forecast to continue its downward trend for at least the next three years. But there is light at the end of the tunnel, with volume growth possible by 2017 as the economy, and consumer spending along with it, improve.

The report predicts that volumes will grow by 1.6% from 1,262 million litres to 1,282 million  litres by 2018.

Elsewhere the report looks at the popularity of wines by country. Australian wines were most favoured by consumers in 2013, with 18.7% of British adults saying they had purchased an Australian wine.

France came second on the list, with 16% of adults saying they bought a French wine during the year, while Italy was in third place at 13.7% according to figures from Kantar Media's Target Group Index survey.

Key Note's report put the total UK alcoholic drinks market, across the on and off-trades, at £45.98 billion in 2013. Wine, with a value of £12.33 billion, represents 27.6%, broadly in line with the spirits and liqueur market.

The document also identified the downward trend in alcohol consumption over the last 10 years as a possible threat to wine sales. Up to now, wine has escaped relatively unscathed, but downward pressure could begin to have an impact.

This report is available to buy online from Key Note or at 0845 504 0452, priced £575 (+VAT).