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Big issues of today will still dominate the trade in 2034 predicts new ProWein study

Published:  28 January, 2014

Consumers and not wine producers will rule the wine industry come 2034, according to a new trade study commissioned by ProWein ahead of its show in Dusseldorf in March.

To mark the exhibition's 20th year anniversary ProWein has looked in to the trade's crystal ball and asked key players across the world to look at what they see as being the most influential trends in 20 years' time.

The study, compiled by Wine Intelligence, will be released in full at ProWein, to be held between March 23-25. In it the report, The International Wine Industry: Global Experts' Vision 2034, has identified the five key areas in which the industry can expect to see big developments by 2034. They are:

 1 Consumers, not producers, will rule the wine industry in 2034

Even in 20 years' time the wine industry will still need to do more to engage with consumer needs. The report predicts there will be an "end to top-down education" and instead more emphasis will be placed on "experiential" and "emotional engagement" with consumers.

Over three quarters of those surveyed (77%) believe consumers will have shorter attention spans in 20 years' time, and 58% will turn more to family and friends for their most trusted information and advice. "Social media," said the report "will increasingly be the conduit by which such information is shared."

Despite shorter attention spans, consumer knowledge of wine will be higher in 20 years, "because information will become easier to access and catalogue".

 2 Distribution will polarise as supermarkets become even more dominant

The trade does not see any end to supermarket domination of the sector with 66% of respondents thinking supermarkets will still be in charge of the the wine industry in 2034. In fact, most expect supermarkets to become even more powerful, and the distribution of wine will become more polarises.

What is currently happening on a local level, with more boutique and niche wines finding homes amongst specialist sellers, will start to happen "on a global scale with wines that don't fit into either category finding life increasingly difficult".

Online sales will continue to grow, but this will not be completely at the expense of high street stores with many of those surveyed hoping "the personal aspect" of local specialised stores continuing to be valued. "Specialist wines will need to focus on stories and messages that resonate with consumers," it says.  

The report adds: "We can also expect to see producers bypassing these channels altogether, with many investing in direct-to-consumer sales and marketing. "

3 North America and China will be the top investment targets

When respondents were asked to "spend a theoretical investment budget", whereby they could not see the returns for 20 years, the majority opted to invest in the US and Canada, with China in second place.

India and Latin America are also seen as key "growth areas", followed by Eastern Europe, though there were worried about "the barriers faced by imported wine in some of these territories".

Sparkling wine was seen as the key ongoing trend within wine styles "with rosé wine taking a back sdeat".

4 Packaging will have a bigger role to play

Some 82% believe packaging technology will be a major influence on the wine market over the next 20 years, particularly the drive for more convenient types of packaging, and for new consumers in emerging parts of the world.

More personalised packaging and environmental sustainability are two key issues the wine industry will be addressing.

We can expect to see alternative packaging finally making a substantial breakthrough and that new packaging design concepts "will have an important role to play in recruiting new consumers, and this may mean deviating from current design norms".

5 Threats will come from tougher regulation - and from other categories

Nearly 60% (58%) of respondents believe the drinks industry will be increasingly hit by the same kind of regulations the tobacco industry has already had to face up to. "Government intervention in pricing, marketing, labelling and even consumption (for example, in terms of the legal drinking age or drink-driving limits) is a real possibility in many countries", says the report.

Wine will continue to face a "challenge from other alcoholic drinks" both in developing and mature markets.

The study was carried out with 115 wine professionals around the world. The report will be available for Euro 249 or Euro 199 for ProWein exhibitors.

ProWein 2014 takes place in Düsseldorf between March 23-25.

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