USA to be 'star of the global economy for 2015' says Euromonitor

By Erin Smith

Published: 26 January, 2015

Euromonitor's global economic outlook for 2015 forecasts the US economy will see the largest growth in real GDP and a strengthening currency, and should be the best performing advanced economy this year.

This will mean cheapening imports, which coupled with a rise in disposable income, is paving the way for increased opportunities for premium wines for both US and European producers.

Media Eghbal, the head of countries analysis at Euromontior International, said: "The US is going to lead global growth as the world's biggest economy in US dollar terms and it will see its strongest economic growth in 11 years."

"Overall we expect the global economy to grow 3.5% in real terms," said Eghbal.

A big boost to global economy in 2015 will be the drop in oil prices. "The global economy is strengthening with the fastest growth expected since 2011. The biggest news to the global economy, which we are all hearing about, all the time, is the fact that oil prices have more than halved since mid-2014. This will really benefit consumers and businesses, but oil exporting countries will suffer," said Eghbal.

The US is set to benefit from falling oil prices. "The US will experience its largest growth in years, with real GDP up 3.5% in 2015, which will be driven by domestic demand," she said. Additionally, with the strengthening US dollar, imports will become cheaper. The combination of a strengthening US dollar and a rise in disposable income among American consumers, it is not surprising that Silicon Valley Bank is predicting that fine wine is predicted to see between a 14%-18% growth in the next year in the US. This could be an opportunity European producers could potentially capitalise on.

The Euro has hit an 11-year low compared to the US dollar. This will make European wines cheaper on the US market.

Euromonitor forecasts China's GDP to grow 7.1% in 2015, which on the surface is still positive. However, this is a significant slowdown compared to the amount of growth seen over the past several years.

Eghbal said: "The slowdown in China will pose another risk, with the lowest economic growth since 1990."

"2015 will be a year of uncertainty for the UK," predicts Eghbal.

The UK will see a benefit from the drop in oil prices particularly in the manufacturing sector. However, there is significantly more uncertainty in the UK market with the impact of the upcoming elections and the impact the performance of the Euro Zone still being unclear, according to Eghbal.

She said: "The Euro Zone poses one of the biggest challenges as it's plagued by stagnation, unemployment, deflation and home debt."

The full webinar can be viewed on the Euromonitor site.

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