Currency: chances of volatility high as raft of UK data comes out

Published: 16 July, 2012

A raft of UK economic data will be released this week meaning currency volatility could be high - inflation, retail sales data, unemployment figures and the minutes from the last Bank of England meeting will all come out.

Currency Rates

EURO/GBP - 1.2712
US$/GBP - 1.5561
CHF/GBP - 1.5274
CAN$/GBP - 1.5783
AUS$/GBP - 1.5206
ZAR/GBP - 12.8434
JPY/GBP - 122.89
HKD/GBP - 12.0532
NZD/GBP - 1.9535
SEK/GBP - 10.9441
AED/GBP - 5.7139
US$/EURO - 1.2226
INR/GBP - 85.29

Inflation data is released on Tuesday and the expectations are for it to be around the 2.8% level. Not quite the target rate as set by the Bank of England but a lot closer than a few months ago. Later in the week we also have retails sales data for June and the hope is for steady growth which should be achieved given that the Diamond Jubilee fell in this period. Towards the end of the week we have unemployment figures which are expected to show an unemployment rate of 8.2%, the same as last month. Not great but with given what is happening elsewhere probably okay in the eyes of the market. We also have the release of the minutes of the last Bank of England meeting. At the last meeting we had the increase in quantitative easing by £50 billion and it is thought all nine members voted for this. It will be interesting to see if any members voted for a bigger increase. So after a week when there wasn't much data released we have a very busy week and as such volatility could be high.

Will the euro garner any friends this week? Less economic data will be released than in the UK. Inflation is expected to stay at an annual rate of 2.4% and the trade balance is expected to improve slightly. However most eyes will continue to stay focused on the Euro zone debt crisis and the level of yields on Spanish and Italian government debt. The progress being made on the bank rescue package will also be scrutinized as timings and the lack of detail are of concern to the market. Also the ongoing effect of the European Central Bank reduction in interest rates could be negative for the euro as investors move their funds elsewhere.

The US dollar has benefited from the uncertainty in the Euro zone. Inflation or the lack of inflation seems to be the major concern with it forecast to be 1.2% in the second half of 2012. This is way below the 2% target of the Federal Reserve. We also have the chairman of the Federal Reserve making his semi-annual monetary to Congress and markets will be looking for any hints on further quantitative easing.

There is a raft of economic data out of Canada so it will be interesting to see what effect this has and what effect it has on other commodity backed currencies especially given the concern over China and its economy.

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